Lier Chemical (002258) Investment Value 杭州桑拿网 Analysis Report-The glufosinate faucet accompanies the rapid growth of the market
As a new type of herbicide, glufosinate is in a period of rapid growth in demand. Lier Chemical, as an internal faucet of glufosinate, is committed to introducing new processes and cost advantages to continue to consolidate the industry faucet and benefit from market space growth.
In addition, the company’s multi-base layout has realized the layout of the entire industrial chain of core raw materials, intermediates, and pesticide raw materials. In the future, the production capacity will increase.
Lier Chemical is a domestic leader in glufosinate, and is actively deploying a full range of pesticide business.
The company is a company established by the Institute of Engineering Physics in 1993. It makes full use of the background of scientific research institutes and good incentive mechanisms. The company has become the absolute leader in the domestic glufosinate industry. At present, it has a production capacity of 11,400 tons and 7,000 tons under construction.The production capacity will become an international giant with a similar volume to Bayer.
At the same time, the company is still actively promoting the development of other pesticide businesses, including high-value-added high-efficiency pesticides such as fluconazole and flufenox.
Global demand for glufosinaldehyde is at a stage of rapid growth.
As the global supplementary policy for paraquat is gradually being implemented, the demand for glufosinate substitution is rising rapidly.
According to our calculations (considering the need for multiple allocations), the replacement demand will reach zero in 2020 and 2025, respectively.
9 boot and 2.
5 For the first time, the need for compounding with glyphosate supplementation.
83 plasma and 2.
Taking into account that glufosinate-resistant genetically modified crops have been gradually listed on the market and have been recognized by major agricultural countries around the world, we estimate that under natural growth, the global demand for glufosinate in 2020 and 2025 will be 1.
46 and 1.
For the first time, the total global demand will reach 3 after the replacement demand is included.
Expansion of production capacity, big waves of sand in the industry, cost advantage may help the company maintain the top of the leader.
Due to the rapid growth of global demand, most companies at home and abroad have launched capacity planning. According to our statistics, the current global capacity is about 3.
8 Initially, there are 4 in the future.
5 Initial capacity under construction.
The growth rate of production capacity is much faster than the growth of demand, and the industry is expected to face fierce competition.
The newly built glufosinate process at the company’s Guang’an base is gradually approaching Bayer’s process level, and the degree of continuity has been greatly improved. At the same time, the supporting capacity of the intermediate MDP has also been built.
Under this pattern, the company is expected to use the layout of the new process to achieve cost advantages and maintain the leading position.
The price of glufosinate is expected to initially stabilize and stabilize.
Due to the rapid growth of domestic productivity, the price of glufosinate dropped from 20 million tons / ton at the end of 2017 to about 10 million tons / ton at present. Considering the cost reduction caused by the technological progress of major domestic enterprises, product prices remainedThe risk of further decline, but we believe that there is not much room for the current price to continue to fall, and some of the external purchasing companies have little profit margin, and the company has resistance to price elasticity in the future.
Risk factors: The company’s new process of glufosinate is not progressing 无锡桑拿网 smoothly, the price of glufosinate has fallen sharply, and a new process with a significant cost reduction has occurred.
Investment advice: The glufosinate industry is in a period of rapid market expansion and large-scale accumulation. As an internal leader, the company is expected to bring cost advantages and maintain the industry’s leading position, greatly benefiting from the growth of market space.
We forecast the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 3 in 2019-21.
22 trillion, corresponding to EPS prediction of 0.
19 yuan / share, considering the company’s business growth and scale, we believe that 20 times PE in 2020 is a fairly reasonable estimate level, the first coverage given a target price of 19 yuan and a “buy” rating.