苏宁易购(002024):在线经营思路调整小店出表后有望迎来业绩改善

苏宁易购(002024):在线经营思路调整小店出表后有望迎来业绩改善
投资要点事件:2019H1公司实现营业收入1,346。18亿,一年+21。63%,归属于母公司净利润为21。39兆,一年减少64。37%。2019H1公司实现商品销售规模1,842。15 ppm,每年增长21。80%;其中线上平台GMV为1,121。  50 ppm,十年增长26。98%。  完善的全渠道零售网络,快消品类发展重心向线下转移。  线下:完善多业态,多层级市场智慧零售网络布局。公司继续优化“两大,两小,多专”的线下门店布局,打造覆盖不同市场等级,不同消费需求的智慧零售渠道网络。截至6月30日,家电3C家居生活专业店/红孩子母婴店/苏鲜生数量分别为2,110 / 172/9家;苏宁易购直营店逐步转变为轻资产的零售云加盟店,终止季度末零售云自营店为1,746家,零售云加盟店达3,362家,加速渗透县镇级低线市场;苏宁小店经营模型持续优化,二季度完成出表,将继续围绕社区市场快速布局,门店数量已达5,368家,迪亚天天加盟店减少至42家。一季度收购的37家万达百货门店稳健经营,依托线下苏宁广场进一步丰富的全渠道零售场景。  零售行业整体增速速度,家电等耐用消费品增长承压,电器店同店仍保持负增长;生鲜,快消品及家居品类相对保持较快增长,二季度线下收入占比较去年同期增加2%,将加速整合小店/零售云/家乐福等线下资源,推动非家电品类协同发展。2019H1家电3C家居生活专业店/苏宁易购直营店可比门店销售收入同比下降5。66%/ 6。27%;红孩子母婴店经营逐步成熟,可比门店销售收入增加增长16。84%。  线上:聚焦社交运营,强化苏宁拼购,苏宁推客,苏小团等产品矩阵。2019H1线上自营GMV为1,121。50 ppm,十年增长26。98%,2019Q1 / Q2自营增速为41%/ 14%,主站增速低于预期。上半年开放平台实现324。55百万美元GMV,每年增长30。50%,2019Q1 / Q2每年增长26%/ 35%,在苏宁拼购,苏宁推客,苏小团等社交产品运营矩阵的强化下实现增长提速。截至6月30日,苏宁零售体系注册会员数达4。42亿人,线上将继续聚焦社交运营,提升流量集聚/转化效率。  营收增速与行业相当,净利润至少减少64。37%。2019年上半年实物商品网络零售额增长21。6%,电商行业增速普遍增长,公司全场景零售支撑下,2019H1实现营业收入1,346。18 ppm,十年增长21。63%。2019H1实现归母净利润21。39兆,一年减少64。37%,初步为去年同期出售阿里股份实现56。The impact of the net profit of 01 million; in the second quarter, the small shop issued a table and calculated that the operating profit of Suning in 2019H1 was -0.10,000 yuan, operating profit for the same period last year was 4.20,000 yuan.  The logistics infrastructure continued to improve, and finance focused on core business development.As of June 30, Suning Logistics and Tiantian Express had a total area of 10.9 million square meters of warehousing and related supporting facilities. 46 fresh cold chain warehouses covered 218 cities, supporting the rapid development of the company’s fresh food business.In 2019H1, the amount of 杭州桑拿 Suning consumer finance / supply chain finance investment will increase by 100% per year + / 41.3%, the number of payment user transactions increased by 31% each year, the total assets of Suning Bank increased by 68 compared with the beginning of the year.20%.  Investment suggestion: Online self-operated growth indicators, growth of open platforms will accelerate, and it is expected to usher in improved performance in the second half of the year, maintaining a “Buy” rating.  According to data released by the China Household Electrical Appliances Research Institute, Suning’s omni-channel home appliance retail market share in 2019H1 is 22.4%, an increase of 1 per year.3%, continue to lead Jingdong (14.1%).Suning’s omni-channel home appliance retail layout is perfect. Under the advantages of the channel, it optimizes profitability with 北京夜网 its own brand, and the certainty of home appliance hematopoiesis is high. The social operation product matrix is formed, and the growth of online open platforms accelerates.The consolidation was completed in the fourth quarter, and fast-moving consumer goods replacements are expected to narrow under the synergy of business integration.Through capitalization, the asset values of Suning Logistics and its own properties will gradually become clear. It is expected that logistics will continue to reduce losses in the second half of the year.If the fundamentals continue to improve, Suning is expected to usher in improved performance in the second half of the year, and subsequent market value growth will be transmitted.It is expected to achieve operating income of 3,038 in 2019-2021.36 / 3,736.54 / 4,555.610,000 yuan, 178 net profit attributable to mother.20/25.32/72.1.1 billion.  Risk reminders: (1) Online-offline integration is less than expected, and online business costs have soared; offline store renovation has been hindered, and poor expansion of new store operations has continued to intensify, causing the company’s profit growth; (2) search traffic dividends have diminished, and Tmall flagshipThe flow advantage of the store weakened; new traffic entrances such as Suning’s purchase, retail cloud, and Suning’s small stores did not develop smoothly, and the growth of traffic costs continued to increase; (3) Insufficient risk control capabilities of financial services, a substantial increase in bad debts, continued to drag the Group’s cash flow to deteriorate.

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