Tianyi Shangjia (688033): Ten years of grinding a sword, focusing on high-quality enterprises for rail brake pads

Tianyi Shangjia (688033): Ten years of grinding a sword, focusing on high-quality enterprises for rail brake pads

Core view: The company is a leading supplier of powder metallurgical brake pads for high-speed rail EMUs in China.

Taking into account the growth of Tianyi Shangjia’s industry and the company’s high profitability, we believe that the company’s 2019 PE estimation range is (20, 33) times, corresponding to a market value of (63).

21, 99.

33) 100 million yuan, according to 44873.

Based on 70,000 shares, the pricing price is (14.

08, 22.

12) Yuan.

Grinding a sword in ten years, focusing on high-quality enterprises in the field of rail brake 都市体验网pads.

The company was founded in 2009, and has been focusing on the field of powder metallurgical brakes for EMUs for ten years. In 2013, it obtained the CRCC EMUs certification for the first time.

The company achieved operating income from 2016 to 20184.

68, 5.

07, 5.

5.8 billion, an increase of 70 each year.

56%, 8.

26%, 10.

01%, of which the powder metallurgical brake business achieved revenue4.

64, 4.

97, 5.

5.3 billion, accounting for 99.

09%, 98.

17%, 99.

16%, the main business is dedicated.

Net profit attributable to mothers in the past three years1.

9.5 billion, 2.

2.2 billion, 2.

6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 119 a year.

41%, 14.

08%, 18.

56%, with steady growth in the past two years.

High industry barriers create high gross profit, high net profit level, and profitability rank among the top in the industry.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margins were 74.

32%, 73.

12% and 75.

11%, of which the gross profit margin of powder metallurgical brake pads of the main business has always remained at about 75%, and the company’s net profit margin has been 41 in the past three years.

53%, 43.

76%, 47.

16%, profitability ranks among the highest in the industry.

We believe that the reason why the company can maintain a high level of profit is basically that the brake pad industry has high barriers to entry, which is mainly reflected in three points: ① breaking through foreign technical barriers; ② relatively strict access qualification review; ③ strong customer stickiness. The scale of the industry demand is steadily rising, and domestic substitution has become a trend. The company has a leading advantage in the industry competition.

① EMU field: According to estimates, the market demand for EMU brake pads in 2016-2018 was 94.

32 million tablets, 109.

02 million tablets and 122.

540,000 pieces, the compound growth rate reached 14%, according to the average unit price of market products, we can get the powder metallurgical brake market size in the past three years were 21.

4.4 billion, 21.

34 ppm and 24.

4.6 billion, showing a steady upward trend.

Based on the market sales caliber, the company’s share in the overall market of EMU brake pads (including newly built vehicles and maintenance markets) is 21.

95%, 23.

37%, 22.

78%, of which the market share of new cars has increased year by year, and the market share of new cars in 2018 ranked first.

②Urban rail sector: In 2018, the overall market demand for brake pads for urban rail vehicles (including new markets and maintenance markets) was approximately 63.

420,000 pairs, the market size is 2 trillion. At present, Tianyi Shangjia has not made large-scale investment in synthetic brakes / brakes and automated production, so the market share has decreased, and only 2 in 2018.

19%.

In the future, the number of urban operating vehicles will gradually increase, and the company will increase investment, and the brake market in the urban rail sector is still promising.

Investment rating and estimation: The company’s overall revenue for 2019-2021 is expected to be 6 respectively.

42, 7.

44 and 8.

710,000 yuan, the net profit attributable to mother is 3.

01, 3.

46 and 3.

98 million US dollars, taking into account the growth of Tianyi Shangjia’s location and the company’s high profitability, we believe that the company’s 2019 PE estimation range is (20, 33) times, corresponding to market value (63.

21, 99.

33) 100 million yuan, according to 44873.

Based on 70,000 shares, the pricing price is (14.

08, 2无锡夜网 2.

12) Yuan.
Risk reminder: market competition intensifies, railway investment is less than expected, and excessive dependence on single customer risk

Author: admin