Xinguang Optoelectronics (688011): Missile Optical Simulation Test Segmental Leader Enters Guidance Module to Broaden Growth Track

Xinguang Optoelectronics (688011): Missile Optical Simulation Test Segmental Leader Enters Guidance Module to Broaden Growth Track

Investment points: The company is a leader in the field of domestic military optical simulation, focusing on missile optical simulation and guidance, and research and development and manufacturing of test modules.

The company’s optical simulation and guidance and test modules are mainly used for the development and testing of missile weapon systems by the military and military industry research institutes.

The company’s missile optical simulation technology is in a leading position in the country. Four generations of products have been developed. The technical indicators cover the spectrum of visible light, infrared, laser, and millimeter waves. It has been replaced by a number of key model development processes.First prize for progress.

The company’s operating income has grown steadily and has strong profitability.

The company’s operating income growth was generally stable.

2017-18 revenue growth rate was 14 respectively.

81% / 14.

48%.

The company’s gross profit margin has declined slightly in recent years, but it is still at a high level, with a gross profit margin of 72 in 2016-18.

25% / 65.

29% / 48.

59%. The slight decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the higher income from military supplements in the previous year, and the decline in revenue of optical guidance and testing products with higher 杭州夜网 gross profit margin in 2018.

The company’s well-known R & D has increased the proportion of R & D investment in the past 3 years, and the proportion of R & D expenditure revenue in 2017-18 was 4 respectively.

96% / 5.

88%, the absolute amount of R & D investment increased and its proportion increased.

The company’s current income composition accounts for a relatively high proportion of products in the research and development stage. According to the existing pricing mechanism of military products, the PB / PE estimation method is recommended.

Considering that the company’s revenue consists of two parts of scientific research and mass production, according to the existing pricing mechanism for military products, the products at the scientific research stage are tentatively priced, and the price is only kept at a level comparable to the product cost. After the final 无锡夜网 price of the product is determined, the difference will be compensated based on the difference.The current profit level and its corresponding PE cannot fully reflect the actual operating conditions. It is recommended to use the PB assessment method first, supplemented by PE estimation.

The company’s BVPS for 19/20/21 is expected to be 12 respectively.

42, 13.

43, 14.

75 yuan / share, issue price 38.

09 yuan, corresponding to 3 PB.

1/2.

8/2.

6 times.

Comparable companies have an average PB level of 4 in 2019-21.

9/4.

5/3.

9. It is recommended to give PB assessment 3.

5-4.

5 times.

Combined with the PB estimation method, we believe that the company has a reasonable market value of 43.

5-55.

900 million.

The reasonable and feasible interval corresponding to the total share capital after the issue is 43.

5-55.

9 yuan.

New stock premium effect: According to historical data statistics, the new stocks 30 days before listing have obvious premium characteristics. According to industry-wide new stock statistics since 2018: the premium rate is 47% -69%, so the possible price range for the company at the initial stage of listing63.95-94.

47 yuan.

Risk warning: product stereotypes risk, the risk of research and development progress is not up to expectations, market competition intensifies the risk.

Special Note: The pricing of the new stocks predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, and in addition, the existing market environment is basically the same as the reasonable price range.

Author: admin